The Fourth Tunnel

Prophecy is not otherworldly foresight, it’s careful attention to history.

More than 25 years ago, authors Neil Howe and the late William Strauss closely examined American history and found they were gazing into a crystal ball. They discovered a pattern that brought what lies ahead for our country into focus.

In their book The Fourth Turning, Howe and Strauss identified a predictable rhythm to social conditions and change, with alternating periods of progress, decay and renewal. Over the course of what they describe as a “natural century,” or roughly the length of a normal human life, there are four identifiable phases or “turnings.” Each one lasts about 20 years.

A first turning is marked by a high, the euphoria that accompanies a recent overhaul of the social order. Society is cohesive, faith in institutions is high, and citizens are confident about where they are headed collectively.

These heady times are followed by an awakening when institutions begin to be questioned and attacked in…